Arizona leaderboard
Top forecasters. Arizona edition.
Brier-score ranking of the most accurate forecasters in Arizona this season — including the ElectionPlus AI algorithm you're trying to beat.
| Rank | Forecaster | Region | Markets | Accuracy | Beat AI | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MR Marisol Reyes 5x weekly winner | Phoenix, AZ | 34 | 81.2% | 28/34 | 4,102 |
| #2 | JS James Suzuki Weekly winner | Tucson, AZ | 29 | 78.6% | 22/29 | 3,847 |
| #3 | AI ElectionPlus AI The algorithm | Statewide | 187 | 73.8% | — | 3,604 |
| #4 | PT Priya Thomas Streak: 7 | Scottsdale, AZ | 27 | 76.3% | 19/27 | 3,489 |
| #5 | DR Daniel Reinhardt | Mesa, AZ | 25 | 75.1% | 17/25 | 3,322 |
| #6 | LM Layla Mahmoud | Tempe, AZ | 31 | 73.9% | 20/31 | 3,201 |
| #7 | CK Chris Kowalski Streak: 5 | Chandler, AZ | 22 | 74.4% | 14/22 | 3,094 |
| #8 | AB Amara Brown | Gilbert, AZ | 20 | 72.8% | 12/20 | 2,978 |
| #9 | VG Victor Garcia | Flagstaff, AZ | 18 | 73.1% | 11/18 | 2,902 |
| #10 | HW Hana Watanabe | Tucson, AZ | 17 | 72.5% | 10/17 | 2,856 |
| #11 | TM Tobin Marsh | Scottsdale, AZ | 16 | 71.8% | 9/16 | 2,790 |
| #12 | CN Camille Ndong | Mesa, AZ | 15 | 71.2% | 8/15 | 2,715 |
| #13 | RK Ravi Khanna | Phoenix, AZ | 14 | 70.9% | 8/14 | 2,650 |
| #14 | SE Sophie Engström | Tempe, AZ | 13 | 70.5% | 7/13 | 2,588 |
| #15 | ML Marcus Lee | Flagstaff, AZ | 12 | 70.1% | 6/12 | 2,520 |
Season 1 prizes
What top forecasters win
Beat the algorithm, climb the rankings, and take home prizes from Arizona local sponsors. All prizes awarded at the end of Season 1.
$500 gift card to Arizona Federal Credit Union, dinner for two at Postino WineCafe, and a featured profile on ElectionPlus.AI.
$250 gift card and a Four Peaks Brewing tasting package for four guests.
$100 gift card to a local Arizona restaurant of your choice.
Humans vs. ElectionPlus AI
Humans 71% · AI 58%
Across Arizona markets where top-100 human forecasters submitted a prediction, humans beat the algorithm more often. Local knowledge wins.
71%
Top-100 human win rate
Top-100 forecasters outscore the ElectionPlus AI in 71% of Arizona markets they enter.
58%
AI overall win rate
Against the average forecaster, the algorithm still wins more than half the time — it's a strong baseline.
2x
AI-beater bonus
Every market where you beat the algorithm doubles your points. That's how humans at #1 and #2 leapfrogged the AI at #3.
About the algorithm
What you're competing against.
The ElectionPlus AI uses polling data, voter registration, historical turnout, fundraising filings, and census demographics — weighted by recency and race type. It's trained on thousands of past elections. But it can't knock on doors.