About
Civic engagement, made competitive.
We're rebuilding what it means to pay attention to local politics — by turning local intelligence into a skill that gets recognized, ranked, and rewarded.
Our mission
Local intelligence deserves a scoreboard.
National politics dominates the conversation, but it's the local races — school boards, ballot measures, council seats — that shape day-to-day life. America's Civic Forecasting Competition exists to reward the people who actually know what's happening on their street.
Engage attention, not anger
The competition rewards curiosity and accuracy, not outrage or hot takes. Better forecasters know more, not louder.
Free for the public, funded by business
The entire prize pool is funded by participating local sponsors. Forecasters never pay a cent.
Make data, not noise
Aggregated forecasts surface real signals about local sentiment — useful to journalists, civic groups, and the public.
Eligibility
Who can play.
Eligible participants must be:
- Legal residents of the 50 United States or the District of Columbia.
- At least 18 years of age (or the age of majority in their state) at time of entry.
- Not employees, officers, or directors of America's Civic Forecasting Competition, its parent company, its sponsors, or their immediate family members or household members.
- Not located in or playing from any state, territory, or jurisdiction where the competition is restricted or prohibited by law.
Void where prohibited or restricted by law. Subject to all federal, state, and local laws and regulations. Eligibility is verified at the time of any prize award.
Official rules
The full rulebook.
Plain English. We've tried to make this readable, but the legal language matters — please read it carefully before playing.
1. No Purchase Necessary
NO PURCHASE OR PAYMENT OF ANY KIND IS NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. A purchase will not improve your chances of winning. Void where prohibited.
2. Sponsor
America's Civic Forecasting Competition is operated by [Sponsor entity name and address — to be filled in], the "Sponsor."
3. Competition Period
Season 1 runs from [start date] through [end date]. Individual prediction markets each have their own entry deadlines listed on the market page. Markets close at the official poll-close time for the underlying election or initiative.
4. How to Enter
Create a free account at americasforecasting.com. Once registered, submit a forecast on any open market before its deadline. Each registered participant may submit one forecast per market. Forecasts may be updated until the market closes; only the final submitted forecast counts toward scoring.
5. Scoring
Forecasts are scored using the Brier score, a continuous, calibration-aware accuracy metric. After each market resolves, every forecaster's score is calculated and presented as points on the public leaderboard. Higher points indicate more accurate forecasting. Markets where a forecaster's probability is more accurate than the Sponsor's AI baseline earn a 2x point multiplier. Streak multipliers and other bonuses are described in the How It Works section.
6. Winner Selection
Prizes are awarded to the highest-scoring forecasters by tier (Weekly Top 10, Monthly Top 25, Market-Specific bounties, AI-Beater bonus, Local Loyalty bounties). Winners are determined based solely on the skill-based scoring described above. In the event of a tie, the tiebreaker is the forecaster with the fewer total markets predicted (rewarding selectivity).
7. Prize Notification & Verification
Winners will be notified via the email address provided at registration within 5 business days of prize period close. Winners may be required to verify eligibility and sign a release and affidavit before prize is awarded. Failure to respond within 7 days of notification may result in forfeiture and selection of an alternate winner.
8. Prize Conditions
All prizes are non-transferable. No substitution except at Sponsor's discretion. Cash prizes are paid via ACH or check. Gift cards from sponsoring businesses are subject to those businesses' terms. Winners are responsible for all applicable federal, state, and local taxes. Prizes valued at $600 or more will require submission of a W-9 tax form.
9. General Conditions
By entering, participants agree to be bound by these official rules and the decisions of the Sponsor, which are final. Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any participant who tampers with the entry process, violates these rules, or acts in an unsporting or disruptive manner. Sponsor reserves the right to cancel, suspend, or modify the competition if any factor impairs the integrity of the competition as determined by Sponsor in its sole discretion.
10. Privacy
Information collected from participants is subject to the Sponsor's Privacy Policy. Sponsor will not share identifiable participant information with sponsoring businesses without consent.
11. Governing Law & Disputes
These rules are governed by the laws of the State of [Sponsor's state]. Any disputes shall be resolved through binding arbitration in [Sponsor's state] under the rules of the American Arbitration Association.
Last updated: May 2026. These rules are a template for a forecasting contest and should be reviewed by qualified legal counsel before being used in any operating contest. Specific dates, sponsor entity details, and jurisdictional terms must be filled in before publication.